Author: Aura Commodities

Aura raised alert level due to drier conditions Feb 2024 and again Jul 2024. Drought became a big market topic September 2024. Aura flagged to clients weather concerns +6 months before it was mainstream.

Aura flagged HIGH risk early December 2023 due to extreme Harmattan winds. A factor in the +$7,000 move in the following 3 months.

Aura dryness risks in Minas Gerais Arabica regions flagged in Dec 2023 and Sep 2024. Lower production risk across multiple market years. Since Aura first flag Arabica prices increased +140% to end of 2024.

:flag-ar: Argentina Soybeans | 2022/23 Market Year Aura flagged lower yields due to La Niña +6 months before the crop was harvest. Smaller crush led to smaller soybean meal production. Soybean meal prices increased by 25% after Aura risk flagged to harvest.

Aura flagged risks of wetter Winter/Spring 6 months before harvest. Excessive rains Nov-Jun caused a +13MMT drop in production YOY and lower quality issues.

Aura yield forecast showed +6 bu/ac drop in national yield 3 months ahead of USDA. Aura flagged risk of dry May-June 2023 before +12% increase in corn prices.

Aura alert level raised Mid-April 2024 due to dryness in 60% of winter wheat production in Southern Russia. EURO Milling Wheat contract increased by 30% April-May due to dryness risk.

Aura increased risk of significant summer drought at the start of June 2024. Sunflower yield estimates decreased by 15% by the end of Summer 2024.